tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3521318064826848712.post6863403311036027415..comments2023-10-19T04:51:53.516-05:00Comments on The Legal Dollar: Buying A Law Degree At The Height Of The BubbleManaging Partnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05130017520583425490noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3521318064826848712.post-86688555283805880442010-01-04T23:24:50.908-06:002010-01-04T23:24:50.908-06:00nycsolo - Here's a recent article in the Chron...nycsolo - Here's a recent article in the Chronicle of Higher Education that really backs your point about graduate education in the humanities.<br />http://chronicle.com/article/Graduate-School-in-the-Huma/44846/Managing Partnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05130017520583425490noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3521318064826848712.post-9875943339783683532010-01-03T18:16:03.192-06:002010-01-03T18:16:03.192-06:00Hi nycsolo - Interesting comment! I think that yo...Hi nycsolo - Interesting comment! I think that you are right that while there are a few tenure track positions, there are too many candidates for each job. However, humanities grad school is a pretty different financial picture from going to law school.<br /><br />For example, I actually have a few friends that went to grad school for the humanities. All of them got TA positions, so they paid no tuition and got a small stipend to live on. That's a pretty differnt picture than paying 200K to go to law school. <br /><br />As for why they went? Some thought that they would be the next great author. Some really liked their subject and bought into the "do what you love and the money will follow" BS. Some really did not know what to do as a next step, so grad school was the easiest choice.<br /><br />How did they fare? A couple of them stopped their education and got "real jobs" when faced with increased expenses like wife and kids. One wrote his book and is scrapping it out freelance. Several realized that there was not opportunity in their fields and went into elementary and secondary education - they now make lots more then the tenure-track positions they originally thought that they wanted.<br /><br />On the other hand, if someone had to take out 40K in loans per year to attend grad school in the humanities, I would agree that the financial choice seems suspect. However, in line with the experiences I mention above, if grad school isn't costing them anything, then I'm not that adverse to it. Also, as long as it isn't costing them anything, I can't bring myself to call them suckers. They may not be as focused as the people that are going to law school, but the law student's focus on a law degree might bring them straight into the trap of $200K in debt - often with a job no better than what they would have had out of undergrad. Comparing these two scenarios, attending grad school seems preferable.Managing Partnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05130017520583425490noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3521318064826848712.post-70528437330345709812009-12-31T17:24:46.656-06:002009-12-31T17:24:46.656-06:00"I think that we are going to see this increa..."I think that we are going to see this increase and that the lemming factor will eventually direct potential students elsewhere."<br /><br />I concede this is possible. But consider the example of grad school in the humanities. It's been known for 20 or 30 years now that grad school in the humanities is a bad investment of time; that you are unlikely to end up with a tenure track position; and so on.<br /><br />And yet lots of people apply and go.<br /><br />It seems to me there is no shortage of suckers.nycsolonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3521318064826848712.post-10329274654790969502009-12-31T15:19:51.360-06:002009-12-31T15:19:51.360-06:00nycsolo - Great comments! First, with regard to t...nycsolo - Great comments! First, with regard to the fundamental economics of the law degree, what I forsee is boom and bust with regard to demand. Demand by students for law school education is in a huge boom right now. However, I think that once the word gets back about how bad of an investment it is and the great number of law students that are unable to get a job, then far fewer people will apply to law school. Once going to law school becomes vilified in the press and "everyone knows" that law school is a bad deal, enrollment is likely to be way down and it is most likely going to be the best time to go. I agree that law school tuition is unlikely to fall drastically, but even if tuition remains constant throughout, the average salary that awaits the law students should rise when fewer law students graduate.<br /><br />You rightly point out three factors that may operate against this - 1) potential students won't get the message, so there won't be a decline in the number of law students, 2) even if there are fewer students, there will be less work available due to outsourcing to India, which will limit the increases in salary, and 3) more law schools will continue to open which will also act against the decline in law students.<br /><br />The factors that you mention are real and will certainly have an impact. They may even swamp the factors that I mention in some scenarios. However, here is why I think that the factors will align the other way:<br />1) Right now law school enrollment is benefiting from the "lemming factor" that "everyone knows" that law school is a great investment. This idea is generally put forth by the press. However, the press loves to be contrary in order to "make news." Note the increase in anti-law school stories. I think that we are going to see this increase and that the lemming factor will eventually direct potential students elsewhere.<br />2) I have done outsourcing work with India, and frankly - it sucks. Actually, let me clarify - it sucks for anything that requires judgment. If you just need someone to stamp bates numbers, then it is just fine (and cheap). I don't find it to be a substitute for attorneys. I DO find it to be a substitute for the domestic companies that we were using for bates numbering. <br />3) It's the profitability factor that is behind the desire to make more law schools. However, once the lemming factor starts steering students away from law schools, the profitability factor declines and new law schools are less likely.<br /><br />However, let me again state that although the reality that I describe is what I believe has the greatest likelihood of taking place, it is certainly possible that the reality that you describe takes place instead - I really hope not, though!Managing Partnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05130017520583425490noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3521318064826848712.post-14243852757921186142009-12-31T11:08:59.211-06:002009-12-31T11:08:59.211-06:00" and the fundamental economics of the law de..." and the fundamental economics of the law degree will most likely be much, much better."<br /><br />I disagree with this because <br /><br />(1) it's unlikely that tuition will fall dramatically the way that stock prices do when a bubble bursts. At 200k, a law degree is a big risk even if the job market is good.<br /><br />(2) There are lots and lots of kids who want to go to law school and will take any financial risk to do so. These kids will clog up the job market for a long time just through their numbers.<br /><br />(3) A lot of legal work is being outsourced to India<br /><br />(4) 10 years ago, the ABA opened the door to a flood of new law schools and the floodgates remain open.<br /><br />__________---<br /><br />When you consider the economics, opening up a law school is a pretty good idea for any college or university which wants to generate some cash flow as follows:<br /><br />1. No matter what they tell you, it doesn't cost more than 3 or 4 thousand dollars a year to provide a legal education. <br /><br />2. At the same time, $18,500 per year is available in guaranteed federal loans.<br /><br />3. There is a nearly unlimited supply of young people who are all too willing to sign on the dotted line to borrow that money and attend law school.<br /><br />Which means that any schmucky little college or university can generate 4 million dollars a year in profit just by opening a law school.<br /><br />No wonder so many new law schools are being opened up even in the worst legal job market in 50 years.<br /><br />So it seems to me one can expect an oversupply of lawyers to continue flooding the job market for quite a while.nycsolonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3521318064826848712.post-21878328455196513772009-10-22T16:24:12.791-05:002009-10-22T16:24:12.791-05:004:13 - I agree, it is not ideal. However, I think...4:13 - I agree, it is not ideal. However, I think that you might agree that shifting your graduation date a few years would greatly helpy your career prospects. Someone else recently mentioned another alternative to me which I think is worth considering - transfer to an evening program (either at your law school or at another). This gives you the benefit of delaying your start date while avoiding the detriment of the "pause." What do you think?Managing Partnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05130017520583425490noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3521318064826848712.post-84645286289644689902009-10-22T16:13:48.024-05:002009-10-22T16:13:48.024-05:00Pause in law school? Oh that'll look good in ...Pause in law school? Oh that'll look good in your transcripts....LOLAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com